by Months following the rapid rebel offensive led by Islamists that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria continues to be a nation in crisis. The recently formed transitional administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is facing increasing security issues, with violent opposition from remaining Assad supporters. Although the breakdown of Assad’s repressive government was a significant milestone in Syria’s 13-year civil war, achieving lasting peace and stability is turning out to be extremely complex.
The transitional administration, mainly made up of individuals who gained recognition from opposition hubs such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a fragmented nation ravaged by prolonged conflict. The dismantling of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and allies. A significant number of these individuals have declined to make peace with the new administration, sparking unrest that jeopardizes the stability of the delicate government.
A persistent danger from Assad supporters
Following Assad’s exit, his supporters have become a formidable insurgent group. These remains of the old regime, with deep roots in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political frameworks, have used their established networks to mount armed opposition. This rebellion is especially pronounced in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous, traditional bastions of the Assad lineage and the heartland of Syria’s Alawite community.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research body, has cautioned that Assad loyalists may constitute some of the most proficient insurgent groups in Syria. Their expertise in military strategy and capacity to exploit existing networks provide them with a tactical edge in orchestrating assaults against the new regime. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating insurgency is the primary hurdle to solidifying control and maintaining national security.
Increasing strife in Alawite areas
The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have exacerbated tensions between Syria’s Sunni-led transitional administration and the Alawite minority, a Shia branch that was the foundation of Assad’s regime. The Alawites, who had privileges and influence under Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks since its downfall. Many now feel sidelined and targeted, despite Sharaa’s promises that his government will honor Syria’s varied religious groups.
Recent accounts of aggression towards Alawite communities have intensified these tensions. Activists have alleged that gunmen linked to the government have killed dozens of male inhabitants in Alawite regions, a claim yet to be independently confirmed but which has nonetheless triggered widespread anger. These events threaten to push more Alawites towards insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area even further.
The scenario in Syria’s southern areas also remains unstable. Although an agreement with Druze forces was secured earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters resistance from multiple factions nationwide. With distinct regions overseen by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim administration’s control is both constrained and divided.
The upcoming economic and diplomatic hurdles
Apart from the pressing security challenges, Syria’s transitional leadership faces a severe economic crisis. Years of conflict have resulted in nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, with the nation still enduring harsh international sanctions imposed during Assad’s era. Sharaa’s administration has prioritized the removal of these sanctions, seeing it as crucial for economic recovery and securing legitimacy internationally.
Nevertheless, Western countries remain cautious about Sharaa’s motives, with some doubting that the new government can genuinely abandon the repressive methods of the Assad period. This skepticism has hindered attempts to gain international backing, placing Syria’s economy in a vulnerable state. The interim administration’s capacity to rejuvenate the nation will hinge on its effectiveness in tackling both domestic security issues and foreign diplomatic obstacles.
A nation split
A country divided
For Sharaa, unifying the nation involves both gaining the people’s trust and overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has urged former Assad security members to lay down arms and seek reconciliation, yet advancements have been sluggish. «We are monitoring everyone, but do not wish to give the impression of pursuing them,» stated a senior official in the transitional government. This careful strategy illustrates the delicate equilibrium the new leadership needs to maintain in their effort to restore order while avoiding the alienation of important population segments.
For Sharaa, the task of unifying the country is as much about earning the trust of its people as it is about overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has called on former members of Assad’s security forces to surrender their weapons and accept reconciliation, but progress has been slow. “We are keeping an eye on everyone, but we don’t want to create the impression that we are hunting them down,” said a high-ranking official in the transitional government. This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the new leadership must strike as it attempts to restore order without alienating key segments of the population.
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad represented a crucial shift in Syria’s history, yet the nation’s journey toward peace and stability is still laden with challenges. From the insurgent dangers posed by Assad supporters to the profound rifts among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the journey forward is unpredictable. The interim administration must tackle these hurdles while attending to the urgent needs of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marked a significant turning point in Syria’s history, but the country’s transition to peace and stability remains fraught with challenges. From the insurgent threat posed by Assad loyalists to the deep divisions among Syria’s religious and ethnic communities, the road ahead is uncertain. The interim government must navigate these obstacles while addressing the pressing needs of a population devastated by more than a decade of war.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
